SHIFTING DIPLOMATIC GEAR IN A RAPIDLY UNRAVELING WEST ASIA

(Published in Indian Foreign Affairs Journal Vol. 12, No. 4, October–December 2017, 277-325)

The near extermination of the ISIS threat from West Asia has ironically brought a new set of challenges in its train. Major global powers thatcame together to pound the terrorist proto-state to smithereensare nowcontending with each other to carve their own geostrategic space at the expense of setting the regional orderright.

A new power axis – Russia, Iran, Turkey and to an extent China — threatens to arbitrate the post ISIS dispensationby bringing Iraq and Syria into their expanding sphere of influence, thereby upsetting the traditional hegemonic applecartof the United States in the regionalong with its allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia.Thus, an incipient Cold War is playing out in this most fractious hub of geopolitics, with the US threatening to rescind on its commitment to the Iran nuclear deal and planning to impose fresh sanctions on Russia before its presidential elections in March.

The crescendo of crises!

The ferocity with which major geopolitical events have wracked West Asiaover the past year is a cause for serious concern as any of these events has thepotential of flaring up into a serious international crisis in an already fraught and destabilized region.

To list just a few flashpoints, we havethesimmering groundswell of public discontent against the Iranian regime that manifested in the New Year protests spreading across 31 provinces, the still unravelling power struggle within the House of Saud under the garb of an anti-corruption drive led by a young and ‘inexperienced’ Crown Prince, a widening wedge within the GCC following the Saudi Arabia-led travel and trade blockade of Qatar, the continuing barrage of Scud-like missiles from Yemen landing ever so close to the Saudi capital and the US unilaterally declaring Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and preparing to move its embassy to the ‘Holy City’.

Worsening the present scenario is the emergence of a dangerous bi-polarity in the region, with Cold War rivals the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia pitted against a ‘revisionist’Russia that is forging alliances with Turkey, Iran and now Egypt.Thus, the incidence of any geopolitical crisis in the near to medium term cannot be discounted, which in turn might have severe implications for India. With arguably more at stake than any other country outside the region, India has over 7 million of its citizens working in GCC states alone, an economy that remains vulnerable to energy price fluctuations, and a maritime trade that has critical chokepoints on its sea lanes through the Gulf region, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al Mandeb.

India: The cost of being mute spectator

Therefore, the time has come for India to reconsiderthecontinuing viability of its hitherto successfulpolicy of diplomatic non-interventionin West Asia. By making full use of its well-earned goodwill among all regional players — who are cognizant ofIndia’s growing geopolitical heft and its major stakes in the socio-economic development of the region — the country needs to consider shifting its diplomatic gear into a more active peacebuilding, if not peace-making role, rather than remaining a passive fence-sitter in a presumed state of incapacity. In any case, New Delhi should at least start making arrangements in the event any sudden contingencies arise out of the worsening situation.

The purpose of this essay is not to sound alarmist, but to debate the trajectory of the worsening situation in the region in order to prepare ourselves for dire situations. Any futuristic scenario building is always riddled with uncertainties, but the appearance of a black swan in the treacherous waters of West Asia seems less far-fetched today than ever before.In fact, many analysts aver West Asia is an accident waiting to happen!

This paper posits that there is now a growing sense of unease among individual actorsof the region, who are faced with major internal and external challenges, which many openly characterize as being of an existential nature. In such a charged atmosphere, there is a high degree of possibility for an uncalculated, unilateral action (like many recent actions by major powers in the region)that might snowball into a major international crisis. The following sections briefly survey these inner vulnerabilities of the regimes in the region that make them susceptible to taking desperate, uncalculated risks in times of danger, thereby making a major geopolitical crisis hitting the region the most likely scenario in the near to medium term, with disastrous repercussions for the world and the Indian economy.

Iran: Regional strengths, internal vulnerabilities

In the nearly four decades of its history, the theocratic regime of Iran has never enjoyed a more commanding presence across West Asia than it does at present. However, it has also never felt equally vulnerableinternally, with the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei drawing flak from both hard line and reformist groupsas well as from a growing cross-section of the public as seen during the January protests that spread to over a hundred towns and cities across all provinces.

For a very long time, the country has remained under severe international sanctions, which has seriouslyimpaired its economic progress, thereby making its people increasingly frustrated with the regime’shighly touted foreign policy.

In fact, the Iranian government appears to have been cognizant of the rising public umbrage for a long time, which compelled it to forge a nuclear deal (JCPOA) with the P5+1 countries in 2015, which it then sold to its people as a foreign policy breakthrough that would pave the way for the lifting of sanctions, the facility to sell oil worldwide and the ‘unfreezing’of Iranian assets in various international financial institutions.

However, the precipitous fall in oil prices and the election of an inimical US President following the deal did not deliver the Iranian economy the promised reprieve it was looking for. With President Trump not certifying the nuclear deal with Iran, a substantial segment of the Iranian population — particularly the economically challenged sections — have grown increasingly disillusioned with the theocratic dispensation.

Anticipating public unease, the re-elected Rouhani government in May last year formed a cabinet filled with members from the regime’s unpopular intelligence agencies. Many of its new ministers are said to have had dubious human rights record and their inclusion had to be made at the expense of the first woman minister and leaders from ethnic and religious minorities that Rouhani promised in his pre-election campaign.

Thus, many eyebrows were raised when Alireza Avaii was appointed justice minister last year although he is said to be involved with the infamous ‘Death Committee’ that supervised the alleged execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Even Communications Minister Mohammad-Javad Azari-Jahromi and Labour Minister Ali Rabiei are alleged to have been intelligence officials in charge of interrogations, torture and censorship.

These cabinet appointments by the Iranian government are indicative of its increasing sense of insecurity on the internal front, which in turn makes it susceptible to engaging in militaristic misadventures abroad in order to secure greater authority and control within.

It is important to note here that Iranian Defence Minister said a few months ago that if the Saudis did anything “ignorant”, his country will leave “no area untouched”in that country except Mecca and Medina. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force also issued a threat to Israel last year that “Hezbollah and the revolutionary youths of the Muslim world can target the fake regime of Israel anytime they decide to do so.”

Saudi Arabia: The bogey of Iran’s sectarianism

A similar existential angst bedevils the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. As internal squabbles increase among a new generation of princely claimants to the throne (with King Salman bin Abdulaziz being the last of Ibn Saud’s many sons), Saudi Arabia has been externalizing its internal insecuritiesby successfully demonizing the Shiite theocratic state of Iran in the eyes of the West. As sectarian bitternessspews out of its religious institutions and media outlets, Saudi foreign policy and military debacles remain shrouded from the gaze of the domestic audience, including setbacks in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Qatar.

Saudi Arabia is also in the midst of a major socio-political change. With the ascension of the octogenarian King Salman bin Abdulaziz to the throne in 2015 and the rise of his 32 year-old-son Mohammed bin Salman (popularly known as MBS) as the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia has sought to modernize its economy under Vision 2030 programme, giving more freedom to its women population, has opened up its cultural centers and entertainment outlets, etc.

These measures are in response to an increasingly restive Saudi population facing economic challenges following a secular decline in oil prices and a large unemployed youth bulge rising fromthe fat that 70 percent of the population being under the age of 30. In an increasingly unpredictable global economic environment, the new leadership’s plan to transform Saudi Arabia from an oil-revenue dependent country into a modern knowledge-based economy by 2030 appears too ambitious to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Saudi leadership appears increasingly isolated and beleaguered not only in the region (given its poor relations with Iraq, Syria, Turkey and now Egypt) and among certain members of the GCC, but even within the walls of the royal household. Having learnt that its proxies often turn rogue, Saudi Arabia has started flexing its own diplomatic and military muscle — such as in Yemen and Qatar — with disastrous consequences. It is in the context of these inherent insecurities and fractiousness that Saudi kingdom appears more susceptible to takingextreme decisions, mainly against its formidable rival Iran that might put regional security in jeopardy.

A New Cold War Heats Up in West Asia

Many US experts claim that US hegemony in West Asia is seriously challenged by Russia these days. In recent years, Kremlin has managed to rope in NATO member Turkey, Iran and now Egypt into its expanding regional orbit. With the assistance of Iran and the grudging acceptance of Turkey, it has helped Bashar Al-Assad reclaim most of his lost territories in Syria, much to the chagrin of his hapless adversaries in the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Many US strategists view the Obama administration’s muddled policies in the Middle East, particularly the abandonment of its own ‘red lines’ over chemical weapons use in Syria, as the turning point in the geostrategic game that allowed Moscow to step in and increase its diplomatic clout.

The drubbing received by the Trump administration at the UN vote against its decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, followed by the poor US showing in another UN vote over Iran’s crackdown during recent protests, has done little  to salvage US prestige and influence in the region.

One can only expect and even more bellicose response from an embittered and beleaguered Trump administration in the event of another regional showdown with Russia or Iran in the near term. Perhaps, the only beneficiary from a prospective geopolitical calamity involving most global players would be China.

US-Israeli right-wing governments

Much like Saudi Arabia, Israel too considers Iran as a real and present danger to its existence. On the one hand, it is wary of Iran’s role in stirring a Palestinian uprising given Tehran’s stated support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, with the head of Iran’s Quds Force Qasem Solaimani recently claiming to be in direct contact with the military commanders of the two Islamist groups. On the other hand, Israel is concerned about the growing military strength of Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, following the latter’s successful experience in conventional warfare in the Syrian conflict and its ability to now fully focus on confronting Israel in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria.

In order to overcome these challenges, Israel has reportedly signed a secret agreement with the US in December last year, following talks between Israeli national security advisor Meir Ben-Shabbat and his US counterpart H.R. McMaster, for the two sides to take action and devise scenarios against Iran on several fronts. The news of the agreement was released by Israel’s television outlet Channel 10 and points to a growing commitment to address the Iranian challenge.

Suggestions for a pro-active Indian engagement

It is generally assumed that most options discussed in India for addressing issuesrelated to West Asia have been so thoroughly explored that there appears no point in revisiting them. There is a critical wariness that appears dismissive of any new proposal, let alone revisiting the earlier explored options in a new light. Still, the paper would like to submit a few suggestions for consideration:

a)     Diplomatic pre-emption versus post-crisis damage control: As argued earlier, India has more at stake in West Asia than any other external power in the region. Although our unstated policy of diplomatic disengagement has served us well till date, we may need to re-evaluate the cost of letting the dangerous melee undermine our vital national interests right before our eyes or taking a more pro-active approach for promoting peace in the region, in a way thatit does not violate our carefully cultivated relations with any of the contending parties. The recent French intervention in reinstating Sa’ad Hariri to the position of premiership — after the latter had resigned from that position during his protracted sojourn in Saudi Arabia — helped diffuse a major political crisis in Lebanon. Thus, proactive peaceful interventions can prove to be less costly than post-crisis disaster management and the time has come for Indian leadership to step up to the challenge.

b)    The needfor clear, coherent West Asia policy: In times of crisis, the apparent deference of any country from enunciating a clearly stated policy creates more problems for it and not any perceivedbenefits. For one, the country is not respected or even trusted in the larger international community as expediency often leads to embarrassing, poorly understood and even self-defeating choices.The statement of clearly stated policy informs not only the external players but brings clarity to government in the pursuance of stated goals. If the government comes out with a White Paper on West Asia that it wants all sides to resolve their differences, conform to international conventions and that it shall be open to mediate if desired by contending parties, India will be able to project itself as a trustworthy power and a force for good in the region.

c)     Teaming up with Europe for mediating role:The growing bi-polarity in West Asia, with the Trump administration aligning itself more closely with traditional regional allies Israel and Saudi Arabia against a resurgent Russia, joining forces with Iran and Turkey, makes the region a veritable powder keg. The absence of any influential mediating power bloc that might keep the contending parties at bay from potentially disastrous geopolitical outcomes worsens the prospects of peace in the medium to long term. Perhaps, India needs to take a bold and imaginative leadership position to safeguard its vital interests in the region by teaming up with other major world powerswho may have the influence, respect and credibility like India to bring all the contending sidesto a better understanding.

In this respect, the role of European nations — such as France, Britain and Germany — who have stuck to internationally agreed positions on the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and the status of Jerusalem in a non-partisan, statesmanlike manner, could be engaged by India for a wide variety of well-coordinated peaceful initiatives — involving various diplomatic means and channels including bilateral and if multi-lateral efforts to restrain the US and Russia from getting trapped  in any contentious row or conflict from which they might find themselves difficult to disengage.

India and Europe have strong trade links (EU being India’s biggest trading partner), most of which find passage through the chokepoints on the sea-lanes throughWest Asia and have critical geostrategic, cultural, demographic and economic interests tied to peace in West Asia and as exponents of liberal democracies and multiculturalism would prove ideal peaceful intermediaries in diffusing any untoward escalation.

India’s intervention would re-establish the nation’s credibility as a constructive player among all parties and to an extent forestall growing Chinese influence in the region.

d)    The Need for Leveraging the Indian Diaspora:It is generally assumed that the Indian diaspora in West Asia, particularly in the Gulf countries, mainly constitutes blue-collar workers. Few recognize the presence of eminent Indian business tycoons like Khimji Ramdass (the only Hindu Sheikh in the GCC), Mukesh Jagtiani, Yusuff Ali M.A., and Sunil Vaswani, along with B. R. Shetty, Sunny Varkey, Ram Buxani etc. Some of them like Mohan Jashanmal (spokesperson for the Indian diaspora, founder of India Club in Abu Dhabi and chairperson of the Indian Business Group) have done a lot for promoting the interest of India and the Indian community abroad. Perhaps, the time has come to develop stronger linkages with these leading Indian luminaries in the region, not only for promoting the welfare of the Indian diaspora, but also for promoting Indian outlook and interests in the region. Various forums, cultural centres, think tanks and direct channels of communications should be developed for closer exchange between the Indian government and non-resident Indians.

There is no denying that the diplomatic tightrope India has walked for decades in West Asia has served the country well till date. However, the growing geo-political and economic interdependence with the region now necessitates greater peaceful engagement to secure India’s long term interests and to fulfil the dreams of our aspirational population, which can never be realized without making West Asian peace and security integral toIndia’s grand strategic geopolitical and economic design.