Showing posts with label Adi Rasheed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adi Rasheed. Show all posts

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Unintended Consequences of US Airstrikes in Iraq

by Dr. Adil Rasheed
Uploaded on USI Website August 20, 2014

The current US intervention to protect Americans in Erbil and the Yazidi community from an IS (Islamic State) pogrom is not only limited in its scope and objectives, but risks several unintended consequences. Firstly, the airstrikes are not part of any overarching campaign to dislodge IS from the country but appears selective,­ a knee-jerk response to the proto-Caliphate’s growing menace.

Secondly, the unilateral intervention by the US to come to the defense of a minority community, though commendable, would now demand greater US involvement across the Iraqi sectarian landscape, in order to be deemed as impartial. In the absence of a broad campaign to protect the Iraqi nation, disgruntled Iraqi Arabs will view this campaign as another instance of favoritism toward the Kurdish people.

Some observers argue that US airstrikes have already left Christians and Yazidis more vulnerable to persecution, as IS fighters now view them as easy targets to hurt the West. Moreover, extremists on social media have started exploiting the general Sunni perception that America largely ignores violence against the Iraqi Sunni community, but actively intervenes whenever its adversaries are under threat, i.e. the Shiite and the Kurds. Not surprisingly, Sunni Arab states in the region have been silent on US action in northern Iraq, and might just exacerbate the deep-rooted distrust and acrimony among the feuding Iraqi sects.

There is no denying that IS has been conducting a campaign of terror and ethnic cleansing against Christians and other minorities in territories under its control, this has severely undermined the pluralistic character of the Iraqi and Syrian societies. After the mass exodus of Christians from Mosul and Qaraqosh (for the first time in history), IS fanatics turned their guns on the minority Yazidi community with a population of around half a million. According to an Iraqi Red Crescent official, the extremist militia recently rounded up over 100 Yazidi families and killed all their male members. Then on August 4, IS began their assault on Sinjar in northern Iraq, the only place that Yazidis claim as their own. Predictably, Yazidis have started leaving their beloved city in droves.

However, sectarian violence in Iraq has not been restricted to the IS alone. On July 31, Human Rights Watch released a report, that accused Iraqi government of supporting militias involved in the kidnapping and killing of over a hundred Sunni civilians around Baghdad in recent months. Some of these Shiite forces were deployed by Prime Minister Maliki to defend the capital after the Iraqi military failed to stop IS forces from advancing. One of these militias, known as As’aib, allegedly carried out collective punishment of local Sunnis by shooting and kidnapping several store owners of that community. Similarly in Hilla, south of Baghdad, Shiite death squads are said to have killed about 50 Sunnis and  buried them in  mass graves.

It seems strange that in the 14th year of the global war against terrorism, the international community has allowed a terrorist state to establish itself in the heart of the Middle East, and they are still reluctant to draw a comprehensive strategy to remove them from power. In June this year, US President Barack Obama openly admitted: “We do not have the ability to simply solve this problem by sending in tens of thousands of troops and committing the kinds of blood and treasure that has already been expended in Iraq … Ultimately; this is something that is going to have to be solved by the Iraqis.”

However, this position has proved unsustainable and the US finds itself being slowly drawn into Iraqi quagmire, simply because it had left Iraq, and divided it on sectarian lines in the first place. Obama’s reluctance toward intervention is an extreme blowback to his predecessor’s penchant for preemptive action. Again, the current confusion is partly the result of recent US support for the overthrow of strong secular regimes in the region, that were adept at tackling the menace of extremism and terror. Therefore, some political experts find recent US action at variance with its policies in Syria, especially when it turned a blind eye to the exodus of over half a million Syrian Christians during the extremist insurgency a few years ago. Even today, the US is hesitant to protect the same ethnic minorities in Syria, which it intends to help in Iraqi Kurdistan. Perhaps, the US finds it embarrassing to accept Assad regime’s defense, that the latter’s “high-handed actions” were necessary to stop, and also the carnage of religious and ethnic minorities at the hands of extremists that infested Syrian opposition forces.

In addition, by US admission, the ongoing airstrikes have not been effective in halting the advance of IS forces in Kurdish areas. US officials now admit that in the wake of the aerial assault, militants have started hiding amongst the population, which has made it difficult to target them. According to a US military official, the present campaign is said to have merely “slowed the operational tempo and temporarily disrupted IS advance toward the province of Erbil,” and there is a need for a comprehensive plan to crush their offensive. A US ground operation to push the militants out of the autonomous region seems unavoidable, but the Obama administration has ruled out that possibility for now.

The horrors that unfolded during Iraq crisis, underscore the need for the US and the international community, to grab the bull by the horns, and reengage itself on the Iraqi security scene and its political process. It is high time that it sets right the sectarian premise of its present dispensation and facilitates the emergence of an inclusive administration in Baghdad. There is also an urgent need to formulate a strategy to defeat the IS menace. Under the banner of Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Iraqi military would have to be revitalized not only to reclaim territories lost to the IS but also to protect every sectarian and ethnic denomination from civil strife and ethnic cleansing. In the absence of a national identity and a well-defined and carefully formulated mission, the complex security situation in Iraq and Syria could easily blow up into a major international conflagration.




Saturday, January 25, 2014

IS: Securing India's Interests in Middle East

Adil Rasheed, Independent Security Analyst, New Delhi


Published on Indian Peace and Conflict Studies Website on June 16, 2014

The rabbit hole of Iraq springs up bizarre and devastatingly new challenges for the US even a decade after its invasion of the country. The embarrassment does not end there. The US is now forced to re-enter the quagmire and may fight alongside its arch-enemy Iran, much to the chagrin of its most ardent allies in the

region – the Arab Gulf states and Israel.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a new virulent strain of Wahhabi militancy, recently took control over the Iraqi cities of Mosul and Tikrit and according to some regional commentators threatens to rejig the region’s entire post-Ottoman shebang. Strangely, a large part of the ISIL’s forces comprises remnants of Saddam’s so-called secular regime – particularly the Naqshbandi Army operating under the command of the fugitive Ba’ath Party leader Izzat al-Douri. In response, Shiite militants have answered the call to arms by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in their thousands, raising fears that Iraq might soon disintegrate on sectarian lines.

These unforeseen events in Iraq follow other extraordinary developments that are fast transforming the geopolitical landscape of the region. Signs of a possible détente in relations between the US and Iran have taken the world by surprise. The six oil-rich Gulf monarchies that constitute the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been particularly outraged by the so-called US ‘double-cross’, with Saudi Arabia being so incensed that it refused to take the UN Security Council seat to which it was elected. The country has even warned of a major shift away from the US and is seeking to build an Asian pivot for a new security architecture.

The US-GCC relationship first came under strain in 2011, when Washington sided with democratic forces that deposed Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and then recognised the Muslim Brotherhood-backed president Mohamed Morsi. Fissures widened following the US’ inaction in Syria and its ‘neutrality’ during the Bahrain uprising, which confirmed GCC fears that Washington was no longer the guarantor of Gulf security. The last straw was the surreptitious nuclear deal with Iran last November, which apparently did not consider taking Gulf countries into confidence.

Thus, the trust is breached and the 40-year-long ‘oil-for-security’ pact seems past its sell-by date. The phenomenal increase in the US’ shale oil and gas production has helped the superpower outgrow its ‘addiction to Middle East oil’, allowing it to act more independently in the region. This has impaired confidence in regional security arrangements, which could have far-reaching implications for West Asia and the world.
For its part, India would have to continue walking a diplomatic tightrope between Iran and the GCC, building on the trust and goodwill it has earned among all sides in a volatile region. Interestingly, the early signs of thaw in the US-Iran relations augur well for New Delhi, as this had been a major point of contention in Washington-New Delhi relations. India has maintained diplomatic ties with Iran and both have shared geostrategic interests, particularly in Afghanistan and Central Asia. A breakthrough in the US-Iran negotiations could also allow India to increase its oil imports from the Gulf country – which are currently limited by the sanctions regime. There is also ample scope for trade and cultural exchanges. 

Still, a wide gulf exists between Washington and Tehran as the present thaw could dissipate any moment.

Moreover, any changes in regional relations should not come at the expense of India’s historic and strategically important ties with the GCC states. West Asia supplies over 62 per cent of India’s oil imports, most of which come from Arab Gulf countries. Moreover, the over 6 million-strong Indian Diaspora in the GCC states has created deep human links between the two societies. While 70 per cent of Indian expatriates in the GCC are blue collar workers, over 20 per cent are professionals. They remit about $30 billion to India every year.

Additionally, the GCC countries view the emergence of Indian economy with great interest. With the rise of major non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia and the US, the Gulf is looking toward the Indian and Chinese markets for sustainable demand. Again, following 9/11 and the 2008 global recession, Gulf capital is increasingly seeking investment out of the West. A significant degree of cultural comfort and confidence in India’s property rights protection and rule of law (unlike China’s) makes India an attractive investment destination. However, the policy paralysis that dogged India’s previous administration proved disappointing for some corporations. It is hoped that with the coming of a strong, new leadership in New Delhi, India may finally be able to meet expectations.

However, the security architecture of the Gulf remains a major concern for India. With the US influence in retreat, India needs to actively engage with the GCC, Iran and Iraq to secure its vital trade and energy interests. In cooperation with other Asian powers such as China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, it should initiate building a durable, non-hegemonic security architecture which ensures stability and peace in the region.